War between Israel, Lebanon unlikely, analyst says

World 22 November, 2023 17:09

A military confrontation between Israel and Lebanon is currently unlikely, said Vladimir Fitin, an advisor to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies. "It’s unlikely that Lebanon will get involved in this confrontation in the Middle East. At this time, the risks of such a development of events have not increased," he told TASS. The analyst said a war could exacerbate Lebanon’s economic meltdown. "The country is suffering terribly from a severe economic crisis. Most of the population has fallen on hard times, so a war with Israel, which could be unleashed by Hezbollah, would now simply be a disaster for Lebanon," Fitin explained. That’s why all forces in Lebanon that are not associated with Hezbollah are "categorically opposed to any involvement of Lebanon in a military confrontation with Israel," he said. "I think that Hezbollah, apart from sporadic missile strikes on individual Israeli bases, will not make its involvement more intensive. And it realizes that if a serious war breaks out, Israeli strikes will certainly destroy the main infrastructure of this group," the analyst shared. According to Fitin, like other Arab countries, Lebanon will continue to "condemn Israel for its disproportionate use of force, indiscriminate approach, and civilian casualties, but nothing more."

Israel turns to the UN

Earlier on Wednesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen demanded that the UN Security Council take action to crack down on Hezbollah’s armed units on the Lebanon-Israel border and enforce UNSC Resolution 1701, which established a ceasefire in the region following the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the summer of 2006. Fitin commented on the move by saying that "as long as there is no strong action by Hezbollah, it can be considered a moderate border conflict." "The UN Security Council has many more serious issues in relation to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict," he continued. "The Israeli side can always issue appeals to try to get some support on the UN stage, but given that the resolutions proposed by Russia and supported by China and Arab countries were not passed because of the position of the US and their Western colleagues, I do not think that this specific resolution will have any chance of success."

About the conflict

The situation in the Middle East sharply escalated following an incursion of Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip into Israel on October 7, accompanied by killings of residents of Israeli settlements near the border and taking more than 200 hostages, including children, women and elderly people. Hamas has cast the attack as a response to Israeli actions against the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Israel has declared a complete siege of the Gaza Strip and started a military operation there. Israel also strikes parts of Lebanon and Syria in retaliation for bombardments originating from these countries. Clashes are also taking place in the West Bank.