To deter West Russia should draw world’s attention to nuclear escalation risks — experts

27 December, 2023 13:19

Russia should draw the attention of the World Majority countries to the risk of nuclear escalation that may result from the West's actions over the Ukrainian conflict, because a wide public discussion of this issue will serve as a powerful means to deter Moscow's opponents, as follows from a report entitled Russia's Policy towards the World Majority, composed by a team of authors from the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy (CFDP) and the National Research University Higher School of Economics. The report was presented at a TASS news conference.

The report was prepared under the auspices of Russia’s Foreign Ministry with the support of the State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs and Russia in Global Affairs magazine. Sergey Karaganov, the academic supervisor of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University Higher School of Economics is the report’s executive editor. The experts set the task of formulating a new strategy for Moscow's interaction with the world majority in the current confrontation with the West.

The authors concluded that against the backdrop of increasing Western military support for Kiev, including the possibility of strikes on Russian territory, Moscow should find it "advisable to prepare the ruling circles and societies of the World Majority countries for a possible conflict escalation, including through political or even - in extreme cases - direct use of the nuclear factor." As the report notes, the very discussion of this issue will become "a powerful factor in containing the West and breaking its will to engage in aggressive behavior."

The report emphasizes that with the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine, Russia has become the military-political core of the world majority, the champion of a new world order, where the West will lose its dominant role. "Russia should position itself as a force standing at the forefront of the struggle against Western hegemony not by chance, but by virtue of its history and cultural and civilizational identity," the analysts pointed out.

In this regard, they said, the stakes in the unfolding confrontation are extremely high not only for Russia, but also for most non-Western countries, since it is the outcome of Russia’s special operation that determines how quickly the world will turn truly multipolar.

"Russia's victory in Ukraine will give an impetus to further efforts to change the global balance of power in favor of mutual respect and equal dialogue, and eventually establish world order based on cultural and civilizational diversity. Conversely, a defeat, even an impression of defeat, would mean a slowdown or even partial reversal of the emancipation from Western hegemony," the report’s authors postulate.

They also noted that the countries of the Global South and East are Russia's natural allies in democratizing the world order, eradicating neocolonial practices, and banishing instruments of pressure and blackmail from the world political, monetary, and financial systems."

Russia-West conflict bound to last

The authors note the scale of the West's current coalition against Russia and warn that the conflict is bound to last. In their opinion, normalization of relations between the parties is now impossible and unreasonable, because it would distract from the task of rebuilding Russia’s economy and society for existence in an acutely adverse and unstable world environment in the next decade and a half or even two decades. At the same time, experts emphasize the idea that normalization, when it eventually takes place at some future date, should be conducted from the position of Russia as one of the central powers of the world majority, while the weakening of the West's role in the world is seen as steady and wave-like.

"There is no hope for any improvement of relations with the West in the foreseeable future. New, suitable ties can only be built as a result of Russia's victory in the ongoing hybrid war (including the armed conflict in Ukraine)," the report says. "Before that happens, any distraction of resources to the western track may happen only if required in confrontation with the United States and its allies."

The report notes that Moscow's relations with other regions of the world are booming, and that Russia needs to promote their greater independence. In this regard, it should cooperate with the world majority, including through the creation of open situational alliances of interest. This will also require a fundamental restructuring of all diplomatic work. The experts recommend an individual approach to each country of the world majority. Large-scale maneuvering of human and material resources is of the essence.

The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening think tanks focused on the countries of Asia, the Near and Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and increasing the number of diplomatic staff in this area. "Novosibirsk, Tyumen, Tomsk, Yekaterinburg, Kazan, Khabarovsk, Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk, and Vladivostok should be positioned as venues for the World Majority’s conferences," the report suggests. Other proposed practical measures also include pooling resources in the media field, visa-free travel agreements with the World Majority’s leading countries, and the restoration or establishment of stable air links with these countries.