The Guardian: Pardoning of Azeri axe murderer raises tensions in the Caucasus

Simon Tisdall’s analytical article was published in The Guardian newspaper entitled “Pardoning of Azeri axe murderer raises tensions in the Caucasus” which specifically reads: “The spectre of war in the Caucasus rose again this week following the pardoning by Azerbaijan of a convicted axe murderer who killed and all but decapitated an Armenian soldier while he slept. The White House, Russia, the EU and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe all moved to diplomatic battle stations as the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, furiously warned: "We don't want a war, but if we have to, we will fight and win."
The case of Ramil Safarov has inflamed public opinion in Azerbaijan and Armenia. The two countries have a history of hostilities that includes a war over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave that killed 30,000 people between 1988 and 1994.
The alarm in Washington and Moscow at the latest confrontation is rooted in political and strategic considerations.
Nato, meanwhile, uses Azeri airfields to resupply Afghanistan. Azerbaijan's military spending, financed by oil sales, is expected to reach $3.6bn this year.
Pro-western, pro-business Azerbaijan's location on the Caspian basin has also made it a key player in the Obama administration's undeclared war on Iran.
Up to 20 million ethnic Azeris live in north-western Iran and some Azeri politicians refer to the area as "South Azerbaijan". For CIA schemers intent on destabilising the Tehran regime, the potential for subterfuge is vast.
Less wealthy Armenia also has strategic significance and powerful backers. Russia is a major weapons supplier, maintains military bases within reach of Armenia's border with Nato member Turkey, and oversees the country's air defences. Russian military flights increased sharply this year as Azeri-Armenian tensions rose, according to Interfax.
It was announced in June that Russia would double its personnel at its Gyumri base, whose lease has been extended until 2044. Gyumri is home to Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and Mikoyan MiG-29 fighters.
Small surprise, then, that the feting of the axe murderer Safarov when he returned to Baku, his subsequent promotion, the awarding to him of eight years' back pay – and Armenia's furious reaction – have caused ripples of alarm at the highest levels. Armenia broke off diplomatic relations with hapless Hungary for letting him go, Barack Obama expressed deep concern about it all, the Kremlin chastised both Hungary and Azerbaijan, demonstrators took to the streets of Yerevan and an Armenian opposition party demanded formal recognition of the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan claimed in turn that Armenia's reaction was "hysterical" and that President Sargsyan had secretly ordered the assassination of Safarov.
International diplomatic efforts to pull the two sides back from the brink appear to have worked so far, but more by luck than judgment. The Safarov affair is not over yet. And it is a sobering reminder that the so-called "frozen conflicts" left over from the Cold War can and will re-ignite with appalling speed if ignored for long enough."