Who Is Winning and Who Is Losing in the U.S.–Israeli War Against Iran?

Political 5 March, 2026 16:26

If we listen to the official sources of the United States and Israel and, more broadly, to the major Western state and corporate media operating under their influence, one might get the impression that Iran is losing — or has already lost.

But is that really the case?

To understand the course of the war, it is necessary to compare the losses and damage that the sides have inflicted on one another.

For this purpose, we can examine two main dimensions (following the classic theoretical framework formulated by the nineteenth-century military theorist Carl von Clausewitz):

Moral (political-psychological) losses
Physical losses (military, human, and economic)

MORAL LOSSES

IRAN

The majority of Iranian society has rallied in response to the external attack.
• The state system has shown no signs of fracture.
• The armed forces continue to offer organized resistance and carry out retaliatory strikes.
• The war has strengthened national cohesion and the spirit of resistance.

UNITED STATES

Influential political and social forces in the United States oppose the war — according to polls, a majority of the population.
• Many representatives of the Democratic Party are calling for an immediate end to the war.
• Public opinion is divided, which limits the government’s ability to sustain a long-term war effort.

PHYSICAL LOSSES

IRAN

Some leaders of the state and armed forces have been killed, including the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Iran’s air-defense system has suffered significant damage.
• Some ballistic-missile launch sites have been destroyed.
• A substantial portion of the Iranian navy has been destroyed or damaged.
• The death toll is approximately 1,000 people.
• At the same time, the country has suffered no territorial losses.

UNITED STATES – ISRAEL

ISRAEL

According to official data, 12 people have been killed and more than 1,200 wounded.
• The large number of wounded indicates significant destruction caused by Iranian missile strikes.
• Missile attacks have inflicted serious damage on civilian and military infrastructure, although censorship restricts the release of information.

UNITED STATES

The United States has effectively lost a number of its military bases in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, which have become targets of attacks by Iran and pro-Iranian forces. In other words, the United States has suffered tangible territorial losses in the region.
• The air-defense systems of the U.S.–Israel alliance are facing the rapid depletion of interceptor missile stockpiles, limiting their ability to withstand high-intensity strikes over an extended period.
The United States has also lost at least three F-15E strike fighters, each worth approximately $100 million.

THE ALLIES FACTOR

ON IRAN’S SIDE

The war has been joined by:
— Lebanon’s Hezbollah
— Shiite military formations in Iraq numbering tens of thousands of fighters.
Yemen’s Ansarullah movement (the Houthis) is preparing to enter the fighting.
• Shiite populations across the region have mobilized in support of Iran.

U.S. ALLIES

Several Arab states of the Persian Gulf are deeply disappointed by the United States’ inability to protect their economies and infrastructure.
• The United States has effectively had to transfer some air-defense assets stationed in the Gulf to Israel.
• Some of these systems have already been destroyed or damaged.

(In this regard, people in Armenia should understand that the TRIPP project is a powder keg that could explode over our heads, and the United States will neither be able nor willing to protect us.)

Thus, in the first phase of the war, the real picture is far less clear than it appears in the Western propaganda sphere.

Iran has suffered serious losses. At the same time, however, it continues to maintain state stability, military resistance, and the support of its allies — factors that could prove decisive in a prolonged war.

The decisive phase of the conflict may still lie ahead.