What are routes out of this 'dangerous moment' in Middle East?

Other 4 February, 2024 20:30

As expected, Friday night's US strikes were carefully calibrated, going further than the US has gone in Iraq and Syria in recent months - but stopping short of directly attacking Iran, the power Washington says is behind much of the Middle East's recent instability.

Is a wider conflagration in the region now more likely - or are there other ways out of what the US has described as this "dangerous moment"?

And is a ceasefire in Gaza one of those ways?

First of all, let's look at what the Americans have actually done.

The attacks were widespread - 85 targets at seven sites across Iraq and Syria - and designed to degrade the capabilities of pro-Iranian militias and their Iranian backers, the Quds Force (the expeditionary wing of Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC).

Follow live: Iraq warns of regional disaster after US strikes

Washington will do its own battle-damage assessment, but this is likely to be more about physical disruption than the number of fighters killed.

By telegraphing its intentions over several days, Washington gave the Quds Force and its local allies time to get out of harm's way.

Washington has made it clear it is not interested in a direct confrontation with Iran. Friday's action was all about preventing a repeat of the attack which killed three US service personnel in Jordan on 28 January.

Nor were its actions confined to the purely military.

It also imposed sanctions on companies allegedly involved in Iran's ballistic missile and drone programmes, as well as six officials from the IRGC's Cyber-Electronic Command.

"I think America has gone to great lengths to calibrate and attempt to reset deterrence in the region," the former commander of UK Joint Forces Command, Gen Sir Richard Barrons, told the BBC.

Whether this works remains to be seen.

Three days ago, the leader of Kataib Hezbollah, one of the leading Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, said it had suspended operations against US forces, a possible sign that Iran was already looking to avoid a further escalation.

But now that the US has struck back, could Tehran's calculation change?

"The United States hasn't struck Iran, so there isn't anything for Iran to do," Prof Mohammad Marandi of Tehran University told the BBC on Saturday morning.

While it's true that the Biden administration resisted the urge to target Iran directly, Tehran's calculations are not likely to be so black and white.

It has also said that it is not interested in a war with America, but through its allies and proxies across the Middle East, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen, it has a range of options to choose from.

Both sides are weighing up their next steps, with Joe Biden saying on Friday that the US response had only just begun.

"It will continue at times and places of our choosing," he said.