Gasoline prices on downward slide, says analyst

Global economic processes are behind the 40 dram drop in gasoline prices in Armenia, according to economist Aghasi Tavadyan.

Gas prices started dropping in the country since late January. As of February 6, the price of 1 liter of Regular gasoline was at 490 drams, while Premium was sold at 530.

Tavadyan told Armenpress he projects the prices to continue falling in the coming months.

According to him, three main factors are responsible for developing the gasoline price in the country: the dropping gas prices in the United States, the decline of oil prices in the global market and Russia lifting the ban on petroleum exports which was in force for a month in autumn 2023.

“Overall, these three factors, each by itself, contribute to the formation of the gasoline price in Armenia. In February last year gasoline was sold in Armenia at 380 and 400 drams. Then, until 4th of September, prices gradually increased and reached its peak some three months ago, when Regular and Premium were sold at 540 and 570 drams respectively. The latest hike, which happened on 4th of October, was actually driven by the depreciation of the dram, which, among others, was our market’s response to the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh. Gasoline prices in Armenia have always fluctuated,” he said, adding that prices are in line with global market trends.

“I think gasoline prices will continue to drop,” Tavadyan added.

Another factor contributing to the formation of the gasoline prices is the dram currency exchange rate, the expert said. However, this factor doesn’t play a role currently because the national currency rate hasn’t changed significantly in the recent period. The dram isn’t expected to appreciate soon, but if the national currency were to appreciate again and sell at 390 drams for $1 like it happened in the past, then the gas prices would be 5% lower than now, according to Tavadyan.

The economist said the geopolitical changes and new conflicts could stop the drop of gasoline prices in the global market, which would have a chain reaction in Armenia.