Turkish-Armenian Relations and Public Opinion

Recent political developments in the historical Asia Minor and Trans-Caucasia region beg the question: are state governments the right institutions to rely on and work with to puzzle out the overarching challenges the nations are facing concomitantly?

Ongoing dramatic changes in the Middle East in general, and in the South Caucasus in particular, pose a threat to a peaceful coexistence within the region. For decades, the Turkish government has been in a perpetual state of genocide denial, while a series of blunders and miscalculations made by the Armenian and Turkish governments vis-à-vis regional policy have sparked tensions. While governments refuse to cooperate on such issues, direct dialogue between people of Armenia and Turkey on the one hand, and between the Armenian diaspora and Turkish diaspora on the other hand, must be a long-term strategy. Closed borders and current glacial Turkish-Armenian relations notwithstanding, dialogue and better future are attainable goals.

First and foremost, a tremendous gap exists between true public opinion and a so-called “published opinion” in quasi-democratic states and in states in transition. Turkish government officials deny the early 20th century conflict resulted in a genocide of Armenians, but have not yet succeeding in filling that vacuum with “adequate alternative stories.” They have not yet grasped that media and information can no longer be controlled by the state, and the the drastic development of information and communication technologies within Turkey and outside its borders is gradual, but constantly changing perceptions of history among ordinary Turks. How long will the Turkish government succeed in keeping official denial dominant over the real public opinion? It is only a matter of time.

Yet it is civil society organizations, think-tanks, and NGOs that can harness the power of ordinary citizens and make their voice heard in the decision-making processes of governments. Turkish society feels as though it is on the threshold of a new life. Many Turks are keen on facing their own history and entering into dialogue with Armenians, but their thirst for change is hampered by that policy of published opinion–imposing the Turkish government’s denial on Turkish citizens. It is of utmost significance to engage as many Turkish students, academics, civil society servants, activists, and ordinary citizens as possible in dialogue with their Armenian colleagues that will spur an increase in public awareness of their own history among Turks, as well as more independence and leverage vis-à-vis their government. Despite a number of successful projects, more must be done by both sides.

What do Armenians and Turks need for a future of coexistence? The answer is clear: Armenians need recognition in order recovering from psychological trauma and dishonor, as well as peaceful coexistence rather than perpetual unease between two people. Turks need recognition for a modernizing and democratizing Turkey for entering in a new era where coexistence replaces enmity, where Turkish society will be robust enough to overcome 21st century’s challenges. Both Armenians and Turks need to assure themselves that public opinion will win a decisive victory over state-led published opinion and open new horizons for two people.