The Moscow Times. Kerry Seen as Best Choice for Putin

Moscow pundits gave a warm welcome to John Kerry on Tuesday, as U.S. senators were expected to confirm their veteran colleague as secretary of state. But they warned that U.S.-Russian relations were set for a potentially bumpy ride during President Barack Obama's second term, contrasting with the "reset" in relations that marked the first.

Kerry, who has been Democratic senator for Massachusetts since 1985, ran for president in 2004, and has chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee since 2009, is widely seen as a preferred candidate for both Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin.

"He is a more traditional person, and his huge experience will go down well with the Foreign Ministry and its conservative views," said Dmitry Trenin, director of the Moscow Carnegie Center.

The State Department has repeatedly criticized the Kremlin's crackdown on the opposition over the past months, and Clinton personally accused Moscow of failing to fulfill its human rights obligations during an OSCE meeting in Dublin in December.

Last week, the U.S. terminated a joint working group over civil society, citing frustration about increased restrictions on Russian civil rights groups.

Experts also agree that Lavrov, a career diplomat who has been in office since 2004 and already is the country's longest serving foreign minister since 1991, will stay put. "There is no risk that he will go anytime soon," Markov said.

However, the analysts stressed that in both countries, foreign ministers are not policy makers but servants to their bosses.
"Foreign policy is done by the presidents, and ministers are their aides," Trenin said.

He argued that Putin's third term as president, which began last year and lasts until 2018, would be marked by "sovereignization," meaning the "maximum exclusion of U.S. influence" on the country's domestic politics.

This policy has manifested itself in a massive crackdown on American non-governmental organizations, which Putin has openly accused of supporting the opposition and the protest movement against him.

Last year, USAID, the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute were forced to close their Moscow offices or relocate outside the country. A new law forces national NGOs to label themselves "foreign agents" if they finance political activity with foreign money.

At the same time, few expect the White House to repeat its "reset" initiative of 2008.

Igor Ivanov, who served as foreign minister from 1998 to 2004, argued that Obama's foreign policy would become tougher in his second term. "The second term is the last, and the president's hands are unbound," he told Interfax last week.

Markov said the "reset" was over because there was no need for it. "Its sole reason was to overcome the problems under Bush," he said, referring to former U.S. President George W. Bush.