The New York Times. Syrian Rebels Find Hearts and Minds Elusive

As the Syrian civil war nears the two-year mark, the opponents of President Bashar al-Assad and their international backers have failed to win the backing of many government supporters, including minorities, a slice of the population whose help is essential not only to resolve the conflict, but also to keep Syria from becoming a failed state, analysts say.

Syrian opposition leaders in exile have repeatedly offered promises that a future Syria will guarantee equal rights to all citizens regardless of religion and ethnicity, including members of President Assad’s minority Alawite sect, and that government officials without “blood on their hands” will be safe. But that has done little to win the allegiance of a significant bloc of Syrians who are wary of the uprising.

The opposition, critics say, has missed opportunities to split government support from within and has allowed Mr. Assad to portray himself to fence-sitters as the best bet to keep the Syrian state intact.

That vacuum, some analysts say, was the backdrop for Mr. Assad’s confident tone in a speech he gave on Jan. 6, when he offered to engage in political dialogue with opponents he considers acceptable.

The concerns come not only from Russia, Mr. Assad’s strongest ally, and Mr. Annan, who resigned as international envoy to Syria when his mediation efforts went nowhere. They are shared by a growing chorus of Middle East analysts, Syrian intellectuals and a former Syria adviser to the Obama administration, which has recognized the opposition as the country’s legitimate representative.

The former Syria adviser, Frederic C. Hof, wrote last month that although the opposition has offered general assurances to the one-third of Syrians who belong to minority groups, “probably no more than a handful” believe it, especially as jihadist groups grow more prominent on the battlefield and issue videotaped calls for the restoration of the Islamic caliphate.

The coalition’s only public response was a statement saying that Mr. Sharaa’s comments showed “the regime is facing its final days with difficulty and seeks not to die alone.”

Protesters in Syria have raised signs calling for a general amnesty “for all supporters of the regime with no blood on their hands,” Mr. Harling said — a statement probably intended to reassure but with the effect of suggesting that mere support for the government is a crime requiring amnesty.

Meanwhile, the government has arguably invested more effort in persuasion. It continues to pay salaries and social benefits in some rebel-held areas. Since Mr. Assad’s speech, Syrian state news media have issued a drumbeat of reports on preparations for “national dialogue.”