The National Interest. Another Regional War in the Wings

In the conflict zone stretching from Syria to Afghanistan lies another war waiting to re-emerge: Nagorno-Karabakh. This dispute is likely to occupy President Obama’s new foreign-policy team whether they want it or not.

Two decades ago the newly independent states of Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bitter war over this remote area of mountains and valleys. Armenia won the war, but nobody has achieved peace. A fragile ceasefire signed in 1994 remains the only tangible achievement of diplomacy.

Since then, a mediation effort led by Washington, Moscow and Paris has sought a solution. Despite the best efforts of the three governments—including presidential initiatives by all three—the parties to the conflict do not and will not negotiate. This impasse has contributed to a dangerous evolution of the dispute in recent years from post-war to pre-war.

A major arms race is underway, fueled by Azerbaijan’s oil and gas wealth and by Armenia’s support from Russia. Azerbaijan is acquiring a distinct advantage in military technology and firepower, but Armenia retains major advantages of terrain and operational skill. Azerbaijan has a patron in Turkey, which feels a fraternal commitment, but Armenia has a treaty-based security alliance and historical partnership with Russia.

A new war would likely be pyrrhic for both sides, but also dwarf the first war in scale and destruction. The initial conflict was limited to Karabakh and its surroundings, and was largely an infantry fight. The next war will engage Armenia and Azerbaijan against each other directly, with greatly expanded arsenals. Both sides plan on this basis and both threaten to target civilian infrastructure, such as pipelines. Serious ceasefire violations have recently occurred on their joint border, not just around Karabakh.

The broader danger lies in the patron-client relationships of the regional great powers, Russia with Armenia and Turkey with Azerbaijan. Ankara and Moscow would not actually come to blows in a new Karabakh war, but both can be dragged into dangerous circumstances by their clients. The Azerbaijani tail has already wagged the Turkish dog to prevent normalizing relations between Ankara and Yerevan.

Unfortunately, Turkey today is so bogged down on its southern frontier that it pays inadequate attention to the looming danger to the east. The failure of its previous effort to normalize relations with Armenia has made Ankara both overly cautious and prone to excessive influence from Baku. However, Karabakh is an opportunity for active Turkish diplomacy both to contribute to a regional settlement and to regularize ties with Yerevan.

American diplomats have tried to be evenhanded toward Armenia and Azerbaijan, but U.S. influence on this conflict is, candidly, inadequate. Thus, Washington should encourage a more active Turkish role and welcome collaboration by Russia and Turkey as Caucasian peacemakers.